Detroit Lions games are becoming must-sees for those who enjoy high-scoring games. This is due in part to an explosive offence and in part to a terrible defence. Take the Over in their Week 14 matchup against the Vikings before the total skyrockets.
Everyone has their own betting strategy, but no matter what system, trend, or gameday animal sacrifice you use, getting the best of the numbers to back up your bet is essential.
This is especially true at this time of year. With more than three months of data, oddsmakers’ power ratings are humming, so a few extra points here and there can mean the difference between a winning Sunday and eating Mr. Noodle for lunch on Monday.
I go over the Week 14 NFL odds and tell you which spreads and totals you should bet now and which you should wait on based on your early Week 14 picks.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at New York Giants
On Sunday, the Eagles completely destroyed one of the top teams in the AFC, defeating the Titans 35-10 in a display of two-way football. On offense, Philadelphia averaged 6.8 yards per play while holding Tennessee to 3.9 yards per snap.
In Week 14, the Eagles take the short bus ride to East Rutherford and open as 6.5-point road chalk against the Giants. New York is coming off a weekend tie with Washington in which they failed to score more than 20 points for the third time in a row.
The Eagles rely on their defense to get the job done on the road, holding opponents to an average of 18.6 points. The Eagles’ pass rush, which had six sacks against the Titans, will face a shaky Giants offensive line, which has allowed QB Daniel Jones to feel pressure at the second-highest rate in the league.
This is a divisional game with the possibility of a letdown, but the difference between the Eagles and Giants is more than a touchdown. Bet Philadelphia -6.5 right now.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5): Bet Later
The Seahawks ended a two-game losing streak in Week 13 with a tighter-than-expected win over the Rams, coming away with the win but falling short as touchdown chalk. In Week 14, Seattle returns home as a 6.5-point favorite against the 4-8 Panthers.
Carolina may not be the sexiest team in the league, but it is covering spreads and has been a favorite of sharp bettors all season — even before the Panthers’ quarterback controversy and coaching changes. The Panthers are 3-3 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in their last six games and are coming off a Week 13 bye, which provided the team with a much-needed break and extended preparation to integrate current quarterback Sam Darnold into the offense.
I expect pro bettors to pile back on the Panthers, and we’re already seeing signs of that with the market consensus down to Seahawks -6 on Sunday night. In Sunday’s win, Seattle rookie RB Kenneth Walker was injured, and his status for Week 14 will affect these odds.
That being said, if you can’t bring yourself to believe in Carolina (the Panthers are still a shambles) and you’re rooting for Seattle (which has a chance to win the NFC West with the 49ers down to a QB3), then sit this one out. Later in the week, the Seahawks could fall below the crucial number of -6.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Over 52)
At this point, Lions games are essentially a bet on the Over. Detroit is 4-2 over/under in its last six games, and this offense is no joke, ranking in the top five in EPA per play since Week 10. The Lions are coming off a 40-point performance at home against Jacksonville on Sunday and will play at Ford Field for the third time in a row in Week 14, hosting Minnesota.
The Vikings scored 33 and 27 points against two tough AFC East defenses, respectively, and now face a Detroit stop unit that ranks near the bottom in most advanced metrics. The Vikings defense was outgained 486 to 287 against the Jets in Week 13 and has been in the bottom ten in EPA allowed per play since Week 10.
These NFC North rivals met in Week 2 in Minnesota, with the Vikings winning 28-24 — just above the 51.5-point total. This time, the bookmakers have set the total at that number, and early money is pushing it up to 53.5 at some books on Sunday night. You can still get a total of 52 as of this writing, so bet the Over now.
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets (Under 45)
The Bills have a lot of pride, which is why they’ve been counting down the minutes until this rematch with the Jets since Gang Green stunned them 20-17 in Week 9.
Buffalo has had a mini-bye this weekend to prepare for and watch New York, thanks to their game against New England on Thursday. The Bills dominated the Patriots with a shut-down defense that allowed only 242 yards and limited New England to 3-for-12 third-down conversions while consuming 38:08 of possession.
Since switching to Mike White at quarterback, the Jets offense has produced 31 points and 466 yards in a win over Chicago and 22 points and 486 yards in a loss to Minnesota this weekend. Those two defenses, however, pale in comparison to Buffalo’s.
The total for this AFC East rivalry game opened as low as 44.5 points on Sunday night and has since risen to 45 points. The extended forecast calls for snow in Orchard Park this weekend, with winds gusting to 31 mph on Sunday.
If you’re thinking Under, wait for this number to rise and make sure you’re getting at least 45 points before betting on a low-scoring Week 14 finish.
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