On Friday, there will be ten hockey games, and the matchups are going to be some of the best ever. In the following, I will outline my top three wagers for Friday’s NHL schedule.
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New York Rangers (-170) on the road against the Colorado Avalanche (+130) | Over/Under 6 (-110/-110)
The Colorado Avalanche, who play in the Central Division, are hosting the New York Rangers, who play in the Metropolitan Division. The Avalanche have had a rough start to the season due to injuries, which is one of the reasons why the team that won the Cup last year is currently fourth in the Central Division.
It is anticipated that the Colorado Avalanche will be without Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin, Evan Rodrigues, Artturi Lehkonen, and Bowen Byram for this particular contest. The fact that the Avalanche have such an absurd amount of firepower sitting on the inactive list is one of the reasons why they have been having trouble creating high-danger scoring opportunities.
The Colorado Avalanche are currently ranked 22nd in the league when playing 5v5 in terms of expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). On the other hand, their defensive unit has continued to perform admirably despite being in a less precarious health than the offensive group.
The Avalanche have the ninth-best record in the league when playing 5v5 in terms of expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Alexandar Georgiev, the goaltender for this team, will likely start the game against his former squad and provides additional support for this formidable defense.
Georgiev has a record of 11-5-1 through 17 starts this season, with a save percentage of.918 and a goals against average of 2.76. According to his metrics, regression should not be too much of an issue because he ranks 14th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5. This indicates that his performance should remain relatively consistent.
On the other side of the rink, the goaltender for the Rangers who is currently the Vezina Trophy winner is going to be Igor Shesterkin. Shesterkin has played in 20 games so far this year and has a record of 12-4-4 with a save percentage of.913 and a goals against average of 2.58.
He is ranked ninth overall among goaltenders who start games in terms of GSAx/60 at 5v5. There is a defense in front of Shesterkin that also places in the top half of the league in terms of xGA/60 when playing 5v5.
Shesterkin and Georgiev squared off against one another on October 25 in a game that Colorado ultimately prevailed in a shootout to win by a score of 3-2. It is likely that this game will be very similar to the one they played before, so for my first two-unit wager of the year, I will be placing a bet on the 60-minute line of Under 6 at a price of -120.
The purpose of the 60-minute line is merely to shield us from the possibility of an overtime result of 3-3, which would then result in a tie.
Best Bet: 60-Minute Line Under 6 (-120) – 2u
O/U 6.5 (-135/+115) for the game between the Pittsburgh Penguins (-150) and the Buffalo Sabres (+130).
The Buffalo Sabres, who play in the Atlantic Division, will take on the Pittsburgh Penguins, who play in the Metropolitan Division. This game is part of the Eastern Conference. On November 2, these two teams played each other for the first time this season, and Buffalo came out on top with a 6-3 victory.
It is possible that the Sabres will once again emerge victorious, but scoring goals shouldn’t be a problem for them. Recent results have shown that Buffalo is on the verge of turning things around, as they have won five of their last eight games.
Their offense has been on fire recently, as they have scored four or more goals in seven out of their last eight games. During this stretch, their defense has been holding up admirably. Regression should not be an issue for Buffalo given that the team ranks 10th in the league in terms of xGF/60 at 5v5 when using their metrics.
In recent games, the top-six forward group has been scoring at an absurdly high clip, a trend that might carry over into the game against Pittsburgh. The fact that this game is the first of a home-and-home series with the Sabres and that Tristan Jarry has started in each of the previous four games strongly suggests that the Sabres will turn to their backup goaltender Casey DeSmith to get the start in this contest.
Recently, DeSmith’s play has been declining, despite the fact that he is a capable backup goaltender. In his last three starts, he has a record of 1-2 with a save percentage of.895 and a goals against average of 3.68.
Given his metrics, I should have been able to anticipate this recent drop in production. If he were to qualify, DeSmith would be ranked 24th among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5v5 in terms of his performance.
Because Kris Letang is still recovering from the stroke he suffered at the end of November, the blue line in front of DeSmith is without its best player. Letang’s stroke occurred at the end of November. The Sabres are expected to compete against a backup goaltender and a defensive unit that will be missing its best player, so they should be able to maintain a high scoring pace throughout this game.
Over 3.5 goals scored by the Sabres as a team is the best bet (+120).
Over/Under: 6 goals (-105/-115) New York Islanders (+180) vs. New Jersey Devils (-220)
The New Jersey Devils, who are currently in first place in the Metropolitan Division, will play host to the New York Islanders, who are currently in fourth place in the division. The Devils won the first matchup between these two teams this season by a score of 4-1, which is a result that has a chance of occurring once again in this contest.
The New Jersey Devils have the most effective defensive unit in all of hockey, as they lead the league in terms of xGA/60 at 5v5 play. Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler are the best defensive duo in the league this season, and they are the ones who are leading this defense. The two of them have played together for 367 minutes, and they have a 65% xGoals% between the two of them.
Vitek Vanecek, who was acquired by New Jersey from Washington during the off-season trade that produced this elite defensive unit, has been outstanding in goal for the Devils ever since the transaction. Vanecek has made 17 starts in goal and has a record of 12-2-1 with a save percentage of.922 and a goals against average of 2.10.
Regression should not be an issue moving forward based on his metrics, as he ranks 11th among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5v5, which is the most important stat for goaltenders. Given that they are ranked just 20th in the league in terms of xGF/60 at 5v5, New York’s offense is likely to struggle in this matchup.
It is not the ideal situation to try to turn things around offensively when you are going up against a Devils team that has allowed two goals or fewer in 10 of their last 12 games.
Best Bet: Islanders Team Total Under 2.5 (-120)
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